Guild’s Basic Needs Index
An Unexpected Opportunity in Asia
Looking for outperformance in Asia’s emerging economies can be a risky undertaking. The trade conflict between the United States and China is generating one set of uncertainties. More deeply, there is the problem of China’s fraught transition from an industrial-led to a consumer-led economy, and all the domestic political stresses
Market Summary: November 29, 2019
The U.S. With most U.S. markets making new all-time highs, or (as in the case of the Russell 2000) breaking out to new recent highs, we remain fundamentally bullish, and fully aware that a modest correction of 1–5% may occur at any time. In keeping with our overarching strategic view,
U.S. / Mexico / Canada Trade Agreement Nears Ratification By Congress
As we write, there’s breaking news that top negotiators from Canada and Mexico have joined U.S. counterparts in Washington on November 27 to discuss the USMCA trade agreement that has been stalled for many months in the U.S. Congress. Recent comments from Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Representative Richard Neal suggest
What Markets Aren’t Expecting: Another Iranian Attack
A little more than a week ago, the Defense Intelligence Agency released an updated comprehensive report on Iranian conventional and unconventional military capabilities. The report notes: “Since 2016, [Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah] Khamenei and other senior leaders have suggested that Iran be more proactive in defending its territory and interests
Tech Pain: Some Growing Negatives of Tech Adoption
Two deeply transformative phenomena of contemporary life were born almost at the same time just over a decade ago. In September 2006, Facebook [NASDAQ: FB] went live to anyone with a valid email address; and in January 2007, the first iPhone was launched by Steve Jobs’ now-famous keynote address at the
Stock Performance and Gender Diversity In Management
ESG is growing in prominence in the investment world. The term refers to the incorporation of “environmental, social, and governance” factors into investment analysis. ESG analysis gives interested investors a window into companies’ behavior and its wider impact in areas that they care about. In order to align their investment
Market Summary: November 21, 2019
The U.S. U.S. stocks continue to forge ahead. In the ebb and flow of news related to trade, impeachment, geopolitics, and the 2020 election, we continue to note underlying reasons for strength. (Of course, the market may decline by 1–4% at any time). One of these reasons is the perpetually
Market Summary: November 15, 2019
The U.S. With most major indices having pushed to new highs, a modest correction of a few percent is possible at any time. Still, we anticipate that by the end of the first quarter of 2020, the U.S. stock market as a whole will likely be 8–10% higher than today,
Pension Funds Reaching For Yield – Are They Creating Dangerous Risks?
It has long been obvious to every professional investor, pension administrator or member of a corporate or union pension committee. Now it’s even in The Wall Street Journal: an article on the increasing risks that pension funds are having to take on as they struggle to earn adequate returns in
Market Summary: November 8, 2019
The U.S. Most large U.S. indices have pushed to new all-time highs, on the back of optimism stoked by positive earnings (as we have have been anticipating over the past few weeks) and perhaps because of optimism about U.S./China trade negotiations. We see that negotiation process continuing to play out,
Traders, Don’t Get Hurt By Bad Gambling Psychology
Two and a half years ago, University of Chicago economist Richard Thaler won the Nobel Prize for his foundational work in creating the discipline now known as behavioral economics, from which we have gotten the field of behavioral finance. We described one of Thaler’s main discoveries: “Humans are not immune
Market Performance and the Presidential Cycle
Many investors are cycle-watchers. The cycles they watch vary greatly and encompass the whole spectrum of economic, financial, political, and geopolitical events and trends. Some are brief, some are long, and some (such as the Kondratiev wave cycle) attempt to frame and track historical epochs. We do not assign decisive
Market Summary
The U.S. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% yesterday. That, plus an announcement that they were closely watching the growth of the U.S. and world economies, will continue to keep the market in a trading range for the next few weeks. The U.S. market is overbought and
Recession Risk and Green Shoots
Perceived recession risks continue to tick down, after reaching a flurry over the summer. Morgan Stanley’s recession risk model continues to register lows for the year. Source: Morgan Stanley Research They comment: “Parts of the economy are responding well to the sharp drop in interest rates since January, an indication
Third-Quarter Earnings Help Dispel Recession Fears
As we’re fond of saying, corporate profits are the mother’s milk of stock prices, so every three months, as quarterly U.S. earnings reports come out, we’re busy watching and listening to see what trends are emerging and what companies have to say about the immediate past and about the near
Market Summary
The U.S. As earnings season progresses, most companies are beating estimates, and sequentially, earnings are coming in on average slightly up. So far, earnings support our view that the U.S. economy is bottoming and preparing to exit the third slowdown of the post-2009 expansion. We note that the U.S. seems
