Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Are Shrinking Stock Markets A Problem?
We recently read a piece in Bloomberg on a notable long-term trend: the U.K. stock market is shrinking. Looking back to 2016, John Authers notes: “While the index has risen more than 23%, the total value of shares has increased by only 2.7%. The reason is the ebbing importance of
Market Summary: January 16, 2020
We may be entering into the last stage of the post-crisis bull market, likely in 2021. Most analysts see very modest appreciation in global stock markets this year; in the markets we favor, mentioned above, we’re looking for more gains than the consensus expects. We are watching carefully for economic
Researchers Build Biological Nanobots
Here’s a new entry in the “robot apocalypse” file (though with lots of alternate happy endings). We recently read in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences about a team of researchers from Tufts, Harvard, and the University of Vermont who successfully created microscopic biological machines, entirely out of
Guild’s Quarterly Conference Call — A Preview
On Thursday, January 23, at 10 AM PST, Guild will host its conference call for the first quarter of 2020, and in this week’s letter, we’ll give you a rundown of some of what we’ll be discussing. You can register for the call here. We always love to hear from
Market Summary: January 9, 2020
We mentioned in last week’s Market Summary that we saw heightened terrorism risks in 2020, and right on cue, the next day the U.S. assassinated the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Iran responded with missile strikes against U.S. facilities in Iraq. The risk of regional destabilization was, briefly, on everyone’s
Socially Responsible Investing: Can the Ratings Be Trusted?
Globally, $3 trillion in institutional assets (perhaps more) are tracking ESG scores — numbers that purport to distill and quantize companies’ performance against environmental, social, and governance standards. We reported to you back in November about interesting research showing better stock performance by companies with higher gender diversity among their
The Trade War and China’s Long Game
At the very end of 2019, China added liquidity to its financial system by loosening the reserve requirements for banks and allowing them to lend more. This move followed three other such cuts earlier in the year, making a total of seven since early 2018. Cutting required reserves is a
Market Summary: January 2, 2020
It has been a typically quiet year-end week, without a lot of significant news for markets or of notable activity. U.S. markets have had a very strong run since the beginning of October, and as we often observe, a correction is possible at any time. Still, as we noted above
New Technology May Make Nuclear More Appealing
Nuclear energy is an unlikely friend of environmentalists. Some remain opposed to nuclear electricity generation because of waste issues and safety concerns. However, a significant number of environmental advocates support nuclear because it is a potential workhorse that could make up much of the shortfall in electricity needs as generation
Questions And Worries For 2020 — And Our Answers
Markets in 2019 truly climbed a wall of worry, recovering from the late 2018 swoon and rising to new highs even in the midst of a host of political, geopolitical, financial, and economic concerns. Some of those worries have been resolved, some have been put to one side, others are
Retirement Changes From the SECURE Act: the Good and the Bad
Recently, the U.S. Senate passed a bill that makes significant changes to the laws governing the tax-advantaged accounts that most Americans rely on to supplement Social Security during their retirement. The President signed it into law on December 20. (We note that when the House passed the bill back in
Risks and Opportunities in 2020
We see a number of macro themes acting on markets in the coming year: The policies of major central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the People’s Bank of China, and others, are supportive of global stock markets; A new president of
Market Summary, December 12, 2019
The U.S. As expected, the Federal Reserve made no change to its policy at its Wednesday announcement. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear in the Fed’s accommodative stance. With the level of inflation that would be required to trigger a Fed rate increase nowhere to be found and unlikely
Farewell, Mr Volcker
Paul Volcker, the venerable former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is credited with slaying the dragon of 70s stagflation during his tenure as U.S. central bank chief. Long afterwards, he was still pushing for sound monetary policy and financial regulations through his think-tank, the Volcker Alliance. He died Sunday at
India: Near-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain
Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Jannata Party [BJP] took the reins of India’s government in May, 2014. Since then, we’ve been bullish on the long-term opportunity that would be presented by India’s emergence from the corruption and business-hostile governance of many of its 20th century rulers. Some readers may have
Market Summary: December 6, 2019
The U.S. We have been noting for some time that the U.S. market, after weeks of strength, would be susceptible to a modest correction of 1–5%, which may now be underway. As often seems to be the case, the news — in this case, President Trump’s pressure tactics ahead of
