Guild’s Basic Needs Index
January 02, 2014
Our Outlook for 2014 in Brief North America U.S.: As we have been saying, the economy in the U.S. will grow in 2014 by a surprising amount. Corporate spending is rising and employment will follow. We anticipate U.S. GDP growth real growth of 3.5 percent and inflation of 1.2 percent, for total
December 26, 2013
Investment Summary We remain bullish on U.S. stocks, and as we mention from time to time we remain bearish on the U.S. bond market. In our opinion, bonds have rolled over after a 30+ year bull market and we expect bond prices to continue to fall. Today, the differential between the U.S.
December 19, 2013
Private Infrastructure Investment Larry Summers didn’t get nominated to run the Fed, but he certainly still has the President’s ear. A piece of analysis we read recently pointed us towards an op ed article he wrote for the Financial Times in mid-October. That piece suggested two lines of thought which we
December 12, 2013
Small Banks Feel the Regulatory Squeeze Through our own contacts in community and regional banks, we have heard many accounts of the effect of post-crisis regulations on this sector of the U.S. economy. The chart below outlines the consolidation of the banking sector. Source: Investor’s Business Daily
December 5, 2013
Yieldcos: Spinoffs Seek Tax and Other Advantages for Renewable Projects Government support is providing powerful tailwinds for renewable energy projects. Despite some public relations problems, the Obama administration’s clear policies still favor renewables over any type of hydro-carbons — even domestically produced oil and gas. Until recently, investors wishing to invest
November 27, 2013
Japan: The Market Still Driven by the Yen and Monetary Policy Since last year’s elections that brought Shinzo Abe to power in Japan, analysts have been consistent in one message: ultimately, the success or failure of Abe’s attempt to bring Japan back from its long stagnation depends on his ability to enact
November 21, 2013
Janet Yellen As Fed Chair — What Does It Mean for Investors? Dr. Janet Yellen is a Keynesian and monetary dove. According to her writings, her speeches, and now her confirmation hearing, she believes that the U.S. economy is not operating at capacity, and that Federal Reserve activities can improve economic activity
November 14, 2013
Why the U.S. Economy Will Strengthen We’ve been arguing that the U.S. economy will strengthen, and in the past week we got more indicators suggesting why this will happen. We’ve Been Bullish On U.S. Stocks As readers know, it is our view that we are at the stage of the economic
November 7, 2013
As the Trauma of 2008 Fades in the Rearview Mirror, How Much Longer Before Businesses Act in a More Growth-oriented Manner? U.S. business is growing slowly, and Business Confidence is returning. 1. The U.S. economy is poised to grow at a more rapid rate. The U.S. is not alone. In spite
October 31,2013
Bank Reform: Europe’s Slow and Steady Progress Continues When Spain’s real estate bubble burst in 2008, the country went into a recession. The country was returning to growth in 2010, just in time to be taken down by the continent’s emerging banking and sovereign debt crisis. Since then, concerns about the stability
October 24, 2013
Government Dysfunction Was Not Effective in Putting Much Fear in the Markets. Here’s Why. The investing world has gotten tired; it is especially tired of crisis. It is tired of financial TV’s network anchors babbling on about how bad the debt limit fight would be, about the looming disaster when the U.S. can’t
October 17, 2013
Global Economics Provides Reasons to Be Bullish, But Politics Poses Downside Risk As we write this, Capitol Hill’s partisan bickering and rancor have reached the conclusion we anticipated. We don’t believe that the conflict which monopolized headlines for the past two weeks is of lasting import. From our perspective, the fundamentals are
October 10, 2013
More Reasons to Be Bullish on Japan We believe recent events and emerging trends continue to justify a bullish position on Japanese equity markets. Since the Japanese economy has been trapped in deflation for more than two decades, the psychology of Japanese market participants — from individuals to corporate managers
October 3, 2013
German Elections Endorse Merkel’s Slow, Steady Approach to Eurozone Recovery (And So Do the Markets) Germans went to the polls on September 22 to elect parliamentary representatives. They handed a resounding victory to “Mutti Merkel” as the chancellor Angela Merkel is affectionately known — Germany’s “mom.” Her center-right party, the Christian Democratic
