Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Chinese Economic Growth: COVID-19 and the Long Picture
Although the news is focused on the human drama of COVID-19 — with quarantines, heroism, tragedy, and fear — economists and financial analysts are busy working through different scenarios for the impact that the epidemic will have on economic activity and economic growth, both in the most affected countries and
Market Summary – 27 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks COVID-19 fears have given market participants the biggest weekly decline since 2008, and a lot of uncertainty remains. As we navigate current events for our clients, we are analyzing data to understand whether we are witnessing an interruption of a continuing trend, or the arrival of
Residential Real Estate: Ripe For Technological Disruption
The total value of residential real estate in the U.S. is about $34 trillion — about the same as the total market capitalization of all publicly traded U.S. companies. But while technology has made the stock market much more efficient — allowing transactions to happen with greater ease and speed,
Bitcoin and Cryptos: Ready For Another Run?
Bitcoin has risen above $10,000 again, and in the context of the ongoing rally in stocks, cryptos are once again getting some attention in the financial press. Although Bitcoin may have left most investors’ minds during the “crypto winter” that followed the bubble burst in early 2018, we note that
Market Summary – 20 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks Are we in a melt-up? We are beginning to see speculative market participants bidding up the stocks of many companies which had been left for dead — if they’re in the sectors and industries of the moment. Many companies associated with carbon-free electricity generation or the
Market Summary–13 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks “Fear? What fear?” U.S. markets have brushed off coronavirus fears and continue to move to new highs. The available data from China and elsewhere suggest that although Covid-19 (the virus’ new official designation) is more worrisome than SARS and MERS, and could yet be disruptive, it
5G: It’s A Big Deal
The rollout of 5G wireless internet presents an enormous economic opportunity, since it will involve the construction and deployment of hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of infrastructure, and ultimately enable the creation of trillions of dollars’ worth of economic value. The companies that provide that infrastructure will be some
Market Summary–6 February 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks Big events are afoot in the world. The coronavirus outbreak is ongoing, and continues to grow, albeit with little direct impact outside of mainland China. Stock markets in the developed world have apparently resumed their advance, with the U.S. again touching close to all-time highs. Even
Why You Need A Financial Plan
Financial worries sometimes create stress, and often that stress is unnecessary. Organization and a little disciplined thinking would help dispel it. With a financial plan, your goals come into clearer view, and so do the strategies you need to implement in order to reach them. Starting to think about the
“The Best Way to Predict the Future Is To Invent It”: Dominic Cummings’ Push For a U.K. DARPA
Over the past few years, a new movement has emerged in many countries around the world, taking different forms in different places, and often labeled by the news media with the deceptively simple term “populism.” However, that term doesn’t capture some of the most important aspects of the historic process
Market Summary — 30 January 2020
U.S. and Global Stocks Thus far, global markets have essentially shrugged off any major risks from the outbreak of 2019-nCoV, the designation for the new SARS-like coronavirus outbreak in China. We note that markets especially in the U.S. remain in an overbought condition, and vulnerable to a correction — either
Don’t Make These Common Estate-Planning Errors
Estate planning is a critical process for investors as they consider the transfer of assets to their heirs, and there are some big mistakes that are easy to make if you lack sound estate-planning advice. That could give your heirs big headaches when you’re gone — the exact opposite of
Repo Madness and Fed Liquidity
Last September, after the crisis in the overnight repo markets, we wrote: “The recent funding stresses that drove U.S. overnight repo rates to spike point out actions that the U.S. Federal Reserve will need to take over the coming year to ensure liquidity. Accounting for organic growth in liquidity needs,
Coronavirus: A Threat to Global Stock Markets?
Last week, in our Market Summary, we commented: “A correction could come in one of two forms — either a boring, sideways grind lasting several months, or a sharp decline of 4–8%, coincident with some appropriate externality, followed by a renewed uptrend. The recent outbreak of a SARS-like coronavirus in
Market Summary — 23 January 2020
A recent piece of analysis of U.S. markets that we read alluded to Waiting For Godot, the mid-century play by Irish writer Samuel Beckett in which the two hapless lead characters are waiting for someone (Godot) who never arrives. After a remarkable period of low volatility and rapid appreciation, sparked
“It Wasn’t Me, Ma — It Was the Algorithm!”
Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL] got pilloried on social media in November, several months into the rollout of the new Apple Card (managed by Goldman Sachs [NYSE: GS]). A tech influencer (the creator of the popular programming language “Ruby On Rails”) called out AAPL for giving him a much larger credit limit than his
