Guild’s Basic Needs Index
The Attack on Saudi Oil Production: Likely Consequences
Last Saturday, a missile and drone strike on Saudi Arabia took out about half the Kingdom’s daily production capacity — 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5% of the global total. About a third of that lost capacity was restored rapidly, within 24 hours; on Tuesday, Reuters reported that
Regenerative Agriculture, Market Style
Although there is a wide range of opinion about the accuracy of the models and the severity of the changes that lie ahead, the consensus of climatologists agrees that climate change is real and that human activity is having a significant effect. Readers are certainly familiar with the various debates
Market Summary
The U.S. This week brought another development in an obscure corner of the market — overnight lending, which banks rely on to meet funding needs. Observers had noted for some time that Fed tightening had been draining liquidity from the system; a confluence of funding needs created a shortfall and
Global Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. Outside the view of most individual investors, a “quant quake” erupted as concentrated hedge-fund bets in momentum growth stocks were challenged by a sudden swing towards value stocks and cyclicals. The indexes were placid, but many observers wondered if this might presage an imminent end
China and Iran Deepen Ties
China and Iran Deepen Ties A recent report in the Petroleum Economist provided some confidential details about the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement that Iran and China signed in 2016. The Iranian and Chinese foreign ministers met at the end of August to hammer out some of the accord’s details. According
The Real Data Are Weaker Than China Will Admit
The Real Data Are Weaker Than China Will Admit China’s rise as an economic power has been good not just for Chinese businesses selling goods to the rest of the world; it has also been good for global businesses selling goods and services to China. Big U.S. companies have been
Market Summary
The U.S. After a somewhat volatile August, U.S. stocks remain in the trading range where they have been for the past several months, as trade worries converge with recession fears. After the much-watched inversion of the two- to ten-year U.S. Treasury yield curve, financial news was full of recession
Norway Moves To Increase U.S. Stock Holdings
The Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (formally, the Government Pension Fund of Norway) was established in 1990 to invest the surplus revenues of the Norwegian petroleum industry. With over $1 trillion in assets, heavily allocated towards equities, it currently owns about 1.3% of global stocks. The Fund has undergone a number
A Tale of Two Chinas
For the past year, concern about the intensifying trade war between China and the United States has gone hand-in-hand with concern about the health of the Chinese economy. China’s dramatic rise as an economic power over the past two decades, and the deep interdependence of the global economy, means that
China, the Yuan, and Capital Controls
At the beginning of August, when the U.S. administration announced that it would levy tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports, the Chinese responded by allowing the Chinese yuan to depreciate against its target basket of other currencies — but only by 1%. And in the wake of last week’s tweets
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. market is still in a correction or sideways mode, with both macro news and fears in evidence, as well as seasonal effects. We are neither as pessimistic as some news media have become, nor are we extremely enthusiastic at the present juncture. We
Don’t Short the Back Bench When It Comes to Entertainment Content
Don’t Short the Back Bench When It Comes to Entertainment Content Although more controversial game titles usually make the headlines, the sales and revenue stalwarts for many video game companies are established sports titles. Electronic Arts [NASDAQ: EA], for example, has the year’s 8th-best-selling title in a decades-old franchise: “Madden
Big Tech’s Slow Migration From Silicon Valley
Over the past decades, California has learned that all of its sun, forward-thinking culture, educated workforce, and entrepreneurial spirit couldn’t stop the gradually accelerating exodus of the aerospace industry from the Golden State. There were many factors involved, of course – but the point is that regional dominance in an
Market Summary
The U.S. A correction is underway in U.S. stocks, as stock and bond markets price in trade war and recession risk and investors seek safe havens. We remind readers that part of the generally accepted bullish thesis at the beginning of the year was that a more accommodative Fed was
Markets Reassess the Fed’s Interest Rate Trajectory
The widely watched two-to-ten-year U.S. Treasury interest rate curve inverted briefly on Wednesday, and remains essentially flat as of this writing. The yield on the longest-dated Treasuries fell to all-time lows. The backdrop, we trust, is well-known to our readers: anxiety about trade wars, fears about slowing global growth, and
The Fed Steps Into Real-Time Payments
On August 5, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced that its governing board had voted four to one to back the creation of a real-time, round-the-clock payment and settlement service, to be called FedNow. The goal of this service would be to set up an infrastructure to allow payments between banks
