Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S.: Stocks, Gold, Cryptos Since we wrote last week, a trifecta of disappointing Fed communication, trade-war escalation, and self-reinforcing recession fears have accompanied an S&P 500 decline of about 4.7% as of this writing, and a strong rally in bonds (as interest rates decline) and gold.
Modern Monetary Theory and the Case For Gold
Modern Monetary Theory and the Case For Gold U.S. investors woke up on Wednesday to news of surprisingly aggressive rate cuts from India, New Zealand, and Thailand, as more Asia Pacific central banks act to preempt a global economic slowdown. At its last meeting, the U.S. Federal Reserve called an
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut the benchmark fed funds rate by 0.25% on Wednesday, as expected, and also ended the runoff of its portfolio of bonds a month early. Fed Chair Powell said, “The outlook for the U.S. economy remains favorable and this
What Microsoft Has To Teach the Other Tech Leaders
Over the past year, three U.S. tech giants have been jostling for position atop the list of largest companies by market capitalization: Amazon [NASDAQ: AMZN], Apple [NASDAQ: AAPL], and Microsoft [NASDAQ: MSFT]. All are valued above $900 billion, with MSFT recently taking the top spot — at $1.07 trillion as
Market Summary
The U.S. Earnings season in the U.S. is in full swing. While earnings growth has stalled after the tax-break driven pace of growth that was enjoyed in 2018, it remains broadly within the trend of growth that has followed the 2008/2009 financial crisis. Source: Bloomberg, LLP Of course, there
A New Cybersecurity Stance for the U.S.
After Iranians shot down a U.S. drone over the Gulf of Oman in June, President Trump publicly discussed his reticence to engage in a conventional retaliatory strike against Iran, citing his desire to avoid disproportionate human casualties. Less reported was the unconventional response that the U.S. allegedly made shortly thereafter,
Is Gold’s Rally More Than a Flash In the Pan?
Is Gold’s Rally More Than a Flash In the Pan? At the end of January, we wrote: “Gold has been a stellar performer in 2019, and our bullish attitude is undiminished. We are believers that (1) slow economic growth in much of the world, (2) some rising inflationary trends in
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. The U.S. stock markets advanced rapidly in June, finally rising to new all-time highs. With the S&P 500 at the top of its trend channel, and several technical signals suggesting that it is overbought, a near-term correction would be normal. In our more active strategies,
Trump’s Executive Drug Price Efforts May Face Legal Rebuff
Trump’s Executive Drug Price Efforts May Face Legal Rebuff Partisan gridlock has made legislative progress on many issues difficult to achieve — particularly healthcare. Senate Finance Committee chair Chuck Grassley has been in negotiations with his Democratic counterpart, Ron Wyden, since early this year to advance a bipartisan bill that
Chinese Banks: No Danger Now, But Watch Carefully
Chinese Banks: No Danger Now, But Watch Carefully On the fringes of the Chinese financial system, signs of stress continue to appear, so far restricted to some small banks and trust companies. The central government is continuing its efforts to unwind the excesses that built up after 2009, when it
The Longest Expansion
The Longest Expansion The economic expansion that began in 2009 has now crossed the threshold and become the longest period of economic growth in U.S. history: Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Of course, this milestone has led to two responses: analysts and central bank economists reminding us that “expansions
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. The S&P 500’s June rally has extended into July. Although the U.S. market remains strong, it is also somewhat anxiously focused on the Federal Reserve and on trade developments. We believe that the fundamental supports of the rally are still firmly in place. The U.S.
Buybacks Will Continue To Support Stock Prices in 2019
Buybacks Will Continue To Support Stock Prices in 2019 We’ve often noted that one of the major facts of the post-2009 stock market rally has been the role played by companies buying back their own shares. By some analyses, company buybacks have been the largest net buyers of stocks over
The War for Ai Tech Talent
The War For AI Tech Talent — and How the U.S. Is Winning It In early July, as reported in the Financial Times, a group of British computing scientists decamped to Silicon Valley to form a new quantum computing startup, PsiQ. Quantum computing, as our regular readers will recall, is
Market Summary
The U.S. With a truce in the U.S.-China trade war, the U.S. stock market has risen to new all-time highs. We’re now on the cusp of earnings season, which will begin in about two weeks. U.S. and global data such as PMI reports have recently been signaling possible slowdowns in
Socially Responsible Investing
B Corporations Feeding Millennial Appetite For Social Responsibility There has never been a watertight separation between business activities and the ethical concerns of those who run businesses and those who invest in them. Over the past several decades, however, there has been a growing interest on the part of many
