Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture the Big Picture
Trade War Static: Stay Focused On the Big Picture Just as markets seemed to be happily pricing in a resolution to the yearlong trade conflict between China and the United States, fresh difficulties have emerged, throwing the outcome into doubt. Global stock markets swooned in response to the tweets… a
Goldilocks Data and a Policy-Driven Rally
The old saying is that stock markets must climb a wall of worry, and we have certainly seen that wall-climbing play out over the past several years. Every day, it seems, we can open the pages of the newspaper (or more likely, check our online news feed) and find headlines
The healthcare decline — opportunity or trap?
Healthcare: Buying Opportunity or Trap? Taking Stock of Past Lessons The strong recovery of the U.S. stock market in 2019 year to date has not treated all sectors equally (rallies rarely do). Healthcare has been a particularly noteworthy laggard in spite of fairly consistent earnings growth, having gone sideways while
We are bullish on emerging markets, which are looking up.
That Keeps Us Bullish: Central Banks Are In Easing Mode, Emerging Markets Still Looking Good Last week, we wrote that we see the possibility that finally, after years of underperformance, the stars might be beginning to align for emerging markets in 2019. Overarchingly, here’s what emerging markets need to see
Green Shoots in Emerging Markets Means Opportunities For U.S. Investors
In the period since the end of the Great Recession, the U.S. stock market has moved ahead — while emerging-market stocks have spent almost a decade basically treading water. Emerging Markets Have Underperformed the U.S. In the Post-Crisis Period Source: Bloomberg LLP For a time, beginning partway through 2016, the
Personal Income Is Up, Which Correlates With A Stock-Market Rally
Personal Income Is Up, Which Correlates With A Stock-Market Rally The health of the consumer is one of the key drivers of the U.S. economy, given the preeminent importance of consumer demand (and of course, this is a feature of all developed economies, not just of the U.S.). Real personal
Market Summary
Market Summary The U.S. economy is much stronger than some of the media’s pessimistic reports. January was affected by weather and the after-effects of the government shutdown. Since that time, U.S. economic growth has improved; we remain optimistic that the U.S. economy will grow by at least 2.4% in 2019.
The “second wave of the shale revolution.”
In 2015, the U.S. removed a restriction that had been in place since the 1973 Arab oil embargo — one that had prohibited crude oil exports. The result could be described, as we quote from in our headline from the head of the International Energy Agency, as a “second wave”
Huawei’s Undersea Ventures and Global Internet Security
Huawei’s Undersea Ventures and Global Internet Security Many intelligence analysts and agencies around the world are concerned that Chinese tech giant Huawei, as it sells hardware, software, and services around the globe, is working hand-in-glove with the Chinese government to further its geopolitical ambitions. These concerns are not limited to
Market Summary
Market Summary Bullish news came Wednesday from the Federal Reserve, at which Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated no further rate increases in 2019, and a single rate increase in 2020. We noted in last week’s letter that many global central banks are currently supportive of stock markets, and that includes
China’s Premier Talks About Further Easing
After the closing session of the National People’s Congress, Chinese second-in-command Li Keqiang addressed various measures that the Chinese government has taken to spur economic growth, and suggested more to come in the future. Source: Xinhua Li noted cuts to value-added taxes (slated to take effect on April 1), cuts
Chinese New Home Prices Rally: A Sign That Stimulus Is Working
As our regular readers know, we like to point out that the Chinese stock market’s performance is much more closely related to retail investor sentiment than are other major world markets. This is because the Chinese domestic stock market (“A sharesâ€) is relatively small compared to the Chinese economy, relatively
Global Market Commentary
Executive Summary 1. The Trump administration deepens its drive for transparent healthcare pricing. In February, the Trump administration asked for comments on a proposed rule with potentially vast effects on the entire U.S. healthcare sector. A rule that came into effect in January already required hospitals to make their list
