Guild’s Basic Needs Index
March 09, 2017
The U.S. Growth Comeback Is In Its Early Innings Here’s why we’re bullish on U.S. economic growth for the rest of 2017, and probably longer. The Great Recession was not a standard textbook economic contraction, and the recovery has not been an ordinary recovery — neither in its structure, nor
March 02, 2017
Global Stocks Stocks are attractive in the U.S. and several other countries, driven by improvements in economic performance. Since the third quarter of 2016, U.S. corporate profits have begun to rise after a six-quarter stint of sideways earnings. Since the end of the first half of 2016, manufacturing PMIs have
February 23, 2017
Running On Empty: Crumbling U.S. Infrastructure Will Take Trillions To Fix, Creating Big Opportunities An unfolding crisis in northern California has brought unexpected attention to the infrastructure push that was one of the campaign planks of the new administration. The Oroville Dam is, in a sense, a crowning achievement of
February 16, 2017
Looking Back on 2017 Let’s take a step back and imagine that 2017 is almost over — and that we’re looking back from a standpoint in late December. What will we see has happened in the U.S. market during the remainder of 2017? First, we think we’ll be reviewing a
Febuary 09, 2017
Market Summary We are bullish on the U.S. but cautious in most other markets. At any time, a correction may begin in the U.S. market as political battles slow down the agenda of tax cuts and deregulation proposed by the new administration. As mentioned above, any failure to have tax
February 02, 2017
Trump’s Plans Are Not Mysterious… He’s Fulfilling Campaign Pledges The new administration’s whirlwind first days in office have led some observers to wonder what they’re up to. Regardless of what we think about the political or economic ramifications of new policies, it’s important for investors to orient themselves and have
January 26, 2017
Tailwinds Still Strong For U.S. Materials Industries Back in early 2016, when Donald Trump’s victory in a contentious Republican Party primary still looked unlikely, the global commodity complex reached the bottom of the decline that had begun in mid-2014. From that bottom, commodities rose unevenly through the rest of the
January 19, 2017
The Markets In 2017: Inflation, Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Despite headlines declaring that the post-election rally is running out of steam as we head towards Inauguration Day, we continue to be optimistic about the prospects for the U.S. stock market for over the next several months. Later in the
January 12, 2017
How China Could Boost Commodities In mid-2014, China’s foreign exchange reserves peaked at nearly $4 trillion. Since then they have been declining as China defends its targeted exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, and increasingly against a trade-weighted basket of its trading partners’ currencies. Reserves now stand at slightly more
January 05, 2017
Our 2017 Outlook Is Optimistic: A Short Summary The Rise of Nationalism Has Changed the World Last year, rising nationalism sparked many global events, and is now an established global trend. We saw it especially in Europe. The European Union’s governing powers in Brussels have long promoted internationalism
December 29, 2016
New Opportunities are Opening Up, and New Risks Are Ahead: How You Can Change, Adapt, and Profit Over the Christmas weekend, instead of enjoying time with family at home, our Senior Analyst found himself making a quick round-trip from Los Angeles up to California’s snowy far north and back again.
December 22, 2016
Market Summary Over the next few months, we believe, the U.S. economy will grow, and certain industries are poised for more rapid growth in the immediate future. We see no U.S. economic recession on the near horizon, and without a recession, it is hard to see the U.S. market having
December 15, 2016
For the U.S. Economy to Grow, Productivity Must Rise — But The Obama administration aimed to increase U.S. labor productivity; and the incoming Trump administration has the same goal. Although the goal is the same, their prescriptions are different. Here is our list of industries to own and to avoid.
December 08, 2016
The Market’s Turn: Financials In the wake of President-Elect Trump’s unexpected victory, two of the sectors we favor are financials and industrials, and we’ll briefly discuss why. First, financials. Financials have enjoyed a strong rally in the month since the election. As of this writing, the Dow Jones U.S. Financials
December 01, 2016
Trump Taps a Turn-Around King The Secretary of Commerce acts “as the voice of U.S. business within the President’s Cabinet.” Trump’s pick for the post, Wilbur Ross, tells us something about the President-elect’s psychology. Mr. Ross has bought and restructured steel, coal, telecom, and textile firms during a forty-year career
November 23, 2016
Source: Bloomberg The post-election rally has now taken all four major U.S. indices — the Dow Jones, the NASDAQ Composite, the S&P 500, and the Russell 2000 — to new highs. The strongest rally has been in the Russell 2000, which consists of
