Guild’s Basic Needs Index
2018 Opportunities In the Late-Cycle Bull Conference Call
In Guild’s most recent conference call, we discuss prospects for the ongoing bull market, and assess recession risk with the help of several key indicators. We examine potential volatility caused by rising inflation and interest rates, and describe the countries, sectors, and industries we find attractive at this stage of
Will Ramping Inflation Cause More Problems For Markets?
Will Ramping Inflation Cause More Problems For Markets? The correction that began on January 30, and which may not yet be over, was triggered by several events. The fundamental events were first, the release of new data showing rising wages; and second, increasing acceleration in the rise of long-term interest
Monty Guild Podcast
Our founder and chief investment officer Monty Guild summarizes the global markets and the recent U.S. market correction. He highlights the sectors and industries that will benefit in this environment.
What is the secret sauce for banks, U.S. corporates, and pension funds?
Leveraged Loans Are a Secret Sauce For Banks, U.S. Corporates, and Pension Funds Modern bull markets are fundamentally credit-driven. They are also credit-ended, when the spread between long-term and short-term rates goes negative and chokes off the supply of credit. This is why watching that spread — the “yield curve”
Riding the Vietnamese Tiger
We’ve been expressing our positive view about Vietnam as a favored investment destination in emerging markets since last June. Since then, the Ho Chi Minh Index has appreciated more than 50% in U.S. dollar terms. Source: Bloomberg Stock market rallies require a combination of economic and financial fundamentals followed by
Get Ready For Self-Driving Everything
Toyota’s Self-Driving Boxes and the Future of Retail We commented last week on Toyota’s [NYSE: TM] presentation at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) — an expo that has become so auto-centric in recent years that a running joke dubs it the Car Electronics Show. TM calls its new concept the
Monty Guild Podcast
Monty Guild the founder of Guild Investment Management does host his first economic and investing podcast. In the podcast, he discusses opportunities in 2018 and what he thinks will benefit from this investment environment globally.
Robots, Robots Everywhere
Robots, Robots Everywhere Robots in Food Service With the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) just past, it might be a good time to mention two developments in robotics that we’ve recently noted. Sage analyst Larry Jeddeloh at The Institutional Strategist noted that this year’s CES was the occasion for Pizza Hut
Monty Guild Podcast
Monty Guild the founder of Guild Investment Management does host his first economic and investing podcast. In the podcast, he discusses opportunities in 2018 and what he thinks will benefit from this investment environment globally.
Global Manufacturing Data Looks Promising
Our founder Monty Guild discusses global manufacturing data and highlights the countries and companies that look promising.
This Week’s Market Summary
U.S. Economics Economic data continue to impress, with wages finally moving higher by about 3% year over year, and S&P 500 profits expected to rise by 15–16%. More positive news is that the U.S. has become a net natural gas exporter, and with the creation of several new gasification and
Manufacturing PMIs Increase — Is Inflation Coming?
Manufacturing PMIs Increase — Is Inflation Coming? The current uptick in global GDP growth means that manufacturers in many countries are experiencing higher demand. As purchasing manager index (PMI) reports come in from around the world, they are showing supply constraints beginning to emerge. Manufacturing PMIs are surveys which ask
What the Tax Bill Means For Taxpayers, For Businesses, and For Investors
The tax bill has passed and has been signed into law, the dust is settling. Accountants and tax lawyers report that it will be moderately beneficial for most individual income tax payers. Ambitious reformers had hoped the tax code would be so simplified that most filers could use a post-card,
The U.S. Economy – The Tax Bill good for U.S. Economy and Good for U.S. Stock Market
Market Summary The U.S. Economy – The Tax Bill good for U.S. Economy and Good for U.S. Stock Market Readers know that we are bullish on the U.S. economic outlook. The passage of the tax bill will create further impetus for economic growth in the U.S. We will not be
The U.S. Economy
The U.S. Economy: Good Performance On Many Fronts U.S. employment data from the Labor department corroborates the evidence that non-farm payrolls rose for the 86th straight month in November, with 228,000 new jobs created. Because of the steady hiring, the unemployment rate has been at 4.1% for two months, holding
What is the most important aspect of the tax bill for investors?
For Investors, Corporate Taxes Are the Most Important Part of the Tax Bill The administration is close to notching its first major policy success with the passage of a sprawling tax cut. We will wait until the legislation is finalized before commenting on its consequences in detail. However, for many
