Guild’s Basic Needs Index
July 07, 2016
Market Summary The Brexit vote and the rise of anti-E.U. parties in Europe show that big changes are underway. Europe The coming changes will be more pronounced in Europe than in the U.K., although the U.K. will also suffer volatility and aftershocks as negotiations to start the withdrawal get underway.
June 30, 2016
Brexit — What Does It Mean? The British electorate has chosen to leave the European Union. This will not be instantaneous, but will take a few years to be completed. Some people view this as a political issue: Britain is tired of strange bureaucratic regulations from Brussels. Others see it
June 24, 2016
Gold, Oil, Stocks, and the Return of Stagflation: Where to Find Profits in the Current Environment Late last year, markets had a pretty robust view of the path of U.S. interest rates in 2016. Reality has intervened, as it has a habit of doing; global market volatility has seemed to
June 24, 2016
Gold, oil, stocks, and the return of stagflation: where to find profits in the current environment. What investments have the potential to perform well under the economic and market conditions that are taking shape around us? From many different angles, the concept of “secular stagnation” suggests that we are in
June 16, 2016
Polls, Polls, Everywhere, and Not a Drop of Certainty Markets are possessed by Brexit fears. The market selloff that began last week may have been prompted by dramatic poll data showing the “leave” vote pulling ahead of support by Brits to remain in the European Union. That’s prompting existential fears
Bronwyn von Abele summarizes the markets (Video) June 16, 2016
https://vimeo.com/171266839
June 09, 2016
Time For Bargain-Hunting In Europe?On Sunday and Monday we heard about two new polls in the U.K. — both showing the “leave” vote pulling ahead of the “stay” vote in the contest to determine whether Britain will remain in the European Union. The momentum was visible also among the U.K.’s
June 03, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Bonds not risky? Think again. At the present juncture, equities are not the only risk assets. As we stand near the end of a 30-year credit cycle, bond yields are poised to rise. We don’t know how fast — that depends on many factors affecting the global
May 26, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Ordinary people aren’t very ordinary. Professor Deirdre McCloskey’s recent piece in The Wall Street Journal got us thinking about the roots of western prosperity — and suggested that current nervousness about populist movements around the globe may be missing the mark. Don’t be too alarmed by rising
May 19, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Market summary. The movement of the U.S. dollar will be the key determinant of the direction of U.S. stocks, gold, and oil — and a great deal about the direction of the U.S. currency and market depends on the coming U.S. election. In our view, the election
May 13, 2016
Executive Summary 1. Critically important to your investments: popular revolts against corruption around the world. This trend will last for decades, and upset many of the patterns we think we know. Corruption and cronyism have existed throughout human history, and ordinary people have usually accepted them with stoic resignation. But
