2012 Guild Basic Needs Index
April 2012 Index April 19, 2012 Was March 2012 U.S. Year-Over-Year Inflation Down, or Up? The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report said that year over year inflation slowed to 2.7 percent in March, from February’s reading of 2.9 percent. In their Core inflation data (where they take out food and energy components), the BLS report said the annual price change was actually higher in March, rising 2.3 percent from March to March versus up 2.2 percent from February to February. Either way you look at it, American workers took it on the chin, just as they have been since 2000. Wages, yet again, did not keep up with price increases. After accounting for rising prices, the BLS says that earnings of workers fell 0.4 percent in March. As we have been saying in these commentaries, the U.S. wage earners’ standard of living is being squeezed by higher prices, and is about to get squeezed by higher taxes as well. The methods and debate about how to parse inflation statistics are not really important. If wages are not keeping up with prices of imported goods, luxury items, or elastic demand items, people can change their consumption patterns. However, if their wages are not keeping up with the cost of basic necessities, then what? March Guild Basic Needs IndexTM shows an uptick in the cost of basic essential goods. April 5, 2012 We are tracking the cost components of basic, essential needs in our Guild Basic Needs IndexTM (GBNI), and
March 2012 Index March 22, 2012 The Guild Basic Needs Index GBNI was created by us to track the prices of these basic components whose price changes affect virtually all sectors of the economy. Since January 2000, the prices of basic needs have risen more than twice the government’s CPI Index. Investors should keep this on their radar, and invest accordingly.
January 2012 Index January 20, 2012 Declining Food Inflation Shows Up In The Guild Basic Needs Index …But As We Said Above, It Is Not Permanent Available only in the Guild Global Market Commentary, the Guild Basic Needs Index (GBNI) tracks the changes in price of the essential needs for living; food, clothing, shelter, and energy. 2011 saw prices of certain basic needs pull back. Correspondingly we saw a reduction in the rapid rate at which the GBNI had been outpacing the U.S. inflation measure, the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Longer term inflationary pressures are building, especially in food and energy, and we expect a re-acceleration of inflation will resume in years ahead. The GBNI gives our readers insight into the subsurface inflationary trends that cannot easily be gleaned from the data offered by government statisticians. In the twelve years since the new millennium started, the prices of the ingredients for life measured in the GBNI are up almost 70 percent, versus about 35 percent for the CPI. To measure a decline in the standard of living, you can take either inflation measure, and compare it to the fact that over the same twelve years, wages in the U.S. have gone nowhere. Our goal is to help readers and investors preserve the purchasing power of savings, and thus their standard of living.