Guild’s Basic Needs Index
Markets This Week
It was a head-scratcher for us that Fed Chair Powell indicated in last week’s press conference that he believes the Fed funds rate is near a “neutral” level. Looking across the inflation landscape, that seems a quixotic view and not one with which we agree. We believe the Fed funds
Why There’s No Health Care In the Guild Basic Needs Index
You have probably seen many graphs like the one below, illustrating the inexorable rising cost of healthcare to the American consumer. Given how much healthcare has outstripped the price increases for other categories, how much it has outstripped wage gains, and how important health care is as a necessity of
ESG Raises A White Flag?
On our ongoing theme of the revenge of the real, the most recent edition of The Economist was devoted to a critique of “big ESG” — the use of “environmental, social, and governance” metrics to grade and construct investment portfolios and indexes. It’s not a condemnation — the magazine is
Markets This Week
The Federal Reserve, as expected, delivered another 0.75% rate increase, bringing the Fed funds rate to 2.5%. Markets were buoyant in response — perhaps concluding that a Fed pivot or declaration of victory is closer than feared, or that too much pessimism had been baked in about the likelihood, and
Guild Basic Needs Index: Cooling Off Month-Over-Month
The general economic deceleration visible in the U.S. and global economies is causing investment analysts and corporate managements to begin anticipating a coming recession. (As we’ve noted before, we believe it is already here, though its duration and severity remain to be seen.) While food and housing inflation remained elevated,
Water: This Most Basic Necessity Makes for an Exciting Theme, But Not For Exciting Investing
In recent letters, we’ve commented on the new prominence of real assets of all kinds in the new, inflationary, deglobalizing post-pandemic world, where “just in time” logistics have reverted to “just in case” — and where for many investors and speculators “return of capital” is remembered to be worth just
Markets This Week — July 21 2022
So Bad, It’s Good? We highlighted Bank of America’s 0.0 bull/bear ratio several weeks ago — noting that the absolute nadir of bearish sentiment is not a sell indicator.The global fund manager survey (above) from the same analytical team, showing managers to be even more pessimistic than they were the
The First Pillars of Civilization: Hot Water and Affordable Food
Inflation Bites Another month, another sky-high CPI print: at 9.1%, the highest year-over-year inflation since 1981. Of course, the methodology of constructing this index has changed over the decades; if the methodology employed in 1990 were used today, the reported rate would be 17.3%, according to ShadowStats. Even this is
Manic Psychology: From Fears of Overheating to Fears of Collapsing In Just A Few Months
The U.S. is likely already in recession. The first quarter saw a real GDP decline of 1.6%; the Atlanta Fed’s GDP now tracker suggests that the second quarter may come in at a decline of 2.1%. Two consecutive quarters of decline meets the technical definition of a recession. The question
Your Expense Receipts Are Giving You More Information Than the Fed, the Government, or the Financial Media
Although we manage investment portfolios for our clients, we also view part of our vocation as being financial educators — something which, through our writing and our media appearances, we’ve been doing for almost as long as our firm has been in existence. We believe investors have a right to
Sometimes, Things Really Are Different: Why Bond Allocations Are Now Radioactive For Investors, and Why You Need To Think Differently About Stocks
As expected, the Fed hiked rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday, with a 50 or 75-basis point hike on deck as well for July. Whatever the very temporary immediate response of the market, it focuses attention very clearly on the inflation and interest rate trajectory. For the majority of
Markets This Week — 16 June 2022
As we write, the U.S. stock market is undoing the momentary relief that followed yesterday’s hawkish Fed announcement. The proximate cause was perhaps the overnight announcement that the Swiss National Bank would consider selling down its $177 billion worth of U.S. equity holdings as it defends the Swiss franc. Perhaps
The Bear Case
Last month we told you that it was “time for a bear market playbook.” We noted that even though there are many extraordinary geopolitical, economic, and financial events unfolding in the world, the central fact was simpler. The Fed is tightening financial conditions, raising rates and draining liquidity by allowing
Jobs & Robots
Yesterday, Wednesday, June 1, saw the publication of April JOLTS data – “job openings and labor turnover” — by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report is one of the key data sources evaluated by the Fed as it monitors the U.S. employment situation; remember that its dual mandate is
Markets This Week — 2 June 2022
Of course, all eyes are on the Fed, inflation, and employment, so much of what we wrote above fills out our general view of where markets are and what is most important to pay attention to. We’ve commented many times in the past about the rise of ESG investing —
Market Desperately Seeking Reason To Bounce
First, let’s touch on the inflation level revealed by the Guild Basic Needs Index [GBNI] — our in-house, real-world inflation measure which we compile from a simple set of data series covering consumer expenses for food, shelter, clothing, and transportation. We had to adjust the x-axis on our graph: year-on-year,
