(310) 826-8600

Guild’s Basic Needs Index

Cage Match: Earnings Outlook vs. Geopolitics

Geopolitics At the Fore As we write, the news coming across the wire is about an attack conducted by unknown actors which has killed more than a hundred Iranians gathered for a memorial at the grave of Qasem Soleimani — a prominent Iranian military leader who was himself killed in

Read More »

2024 Year Ahead:  A Global Summary (And Monty’s Personal Notes)

The discussion surrounding the economic outlook for 2024 is multifaceted, with various factors influencing the global and United States economies.  We are maintaining a bullish stance for 2024, despite potential slowdowns in global growth, particularly in China.  Alongside China, Russia and several global commodity producers might experience a deceleration from

Read More »

China’s Economic Shift: Moving Away From Global Integration

We’re going to spend December looking ahead at 2024’s prospects.  We have an optimistic outlook for many global markets: in coming weeks we’ll describe why we’re bullish on Japan and India in particular, as well as giving our outlook on the United States.  But today we’ll start with perhaps the

Read More »

Oil, Inflation, Bank Crises, and Gold

We wish our readers who are celebrating the holidays a joyful Easter and Passover (and in advance, we wish Eid Mubarak to those who will celebrate it later this month). OPEC+ (that is, OPEC plus Russia) made a surprise announcement of production cuts on Monday, bringing the cartel’s total cuts

Read More »

China’s Out of Sync… In A Good Way

But First: What’s That Up There, A Ceiling? Before we get to today’s main topic, a comment on the debt ceiling.  It started innocently as a piece of World War I-era legislation intended to remove the threat of the Federal government running out of cash.  But it was weaponized during

Read More »

2023 Year Ahead:  Monty’s Economic Overview and Outlook, Part 1

We believe the beginning of 2023 will likely bring a recession and more stock-market declines — perhaps beginning between now and the end of January.  Since this recession will likely end in late 2023 or early 2024, and the market will discount the economic upturn by 6–12 months, we think

Read More »

China:  Trading Opportunity Emerging… Rest of World: Too Late To Be Bearish, Too Early To Be Bullish

China Recently, developments in China indicate an almost chaotic exit to the country’s “zero covid” policy, suggesting potential opportunities in Chinese equities — which are still highly under-owned by global investors.  In our view, as a brief, counter-trend technical euphoria in U.S. markets fades, a recession continues to loom over

Read More »

Wishing All Our American Readers A Happy Thanksgiving Holiday

As we enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday and the usually quiet half-day of trading that follows on Friday, a few notes on current events of potential significance that we are watching. First, China.  Due to China’s central role as an engine of global commodity demand, sentiment in world stock markets can

Read More »

FTX Collapse Signals the End of Crypto’s Wild West

The ripples continue to spread from the collapse of what has now been revealed as an epochal fraud at FTX, formerly the world’s third-largest crypto exchange.  The first blow came with revelations on the CoinDesk website, which had obtained a balance-sheet of FTX’s crypto hedge fund, Alameda Research, suggesting it

Read More »

Markets This Week

More Evidence the Inflation Spike Is In the Rear View Mirror PPI (producer price inflation) data yesterday showed slowing inflation impulses, as we have discussed.  Even our own index of basic essential needs (representing food, clothing, shelter, and energy components) reflect a sharp slow down in price increases from this

Read More »

Markets This Week:  Fed Messaging Leaves Market Guessing

The Fed “We still have some ways to go, and incoming data since our last meeting suggest that the ultimate level of interest rates will be higher than previously expected.” Jerome Powell, Nov 2 2022 By one significant measure, the Fed has succeeded.  In the wake of the pandemic fiscal

Read More »

We’ve moved!

Here you’ll find the historical archives of Guild’s Global Market Commentary, and our occasional public posts. To read all our content, please visit our Substack page to subscribe.